A combination of Atleti’s home dominance under Simeone, historic triumphs in the knockout stages and a favourable path to the 2025/26 final make Los Rojiblancos a quiet threat
A victory against a struggling Tottenham Hotspur alone does not serve as justification to believe that this Atlético Madrid is built to go all the way in the Champions League for the first time in club history. In fact, despite finishing fourth in the League Phase table, Spurs have lost 44 games since start of last season, and currently the only Premier League team not to have won a match in 2026.
Yet, taking into account Atlético’s record on home soil, as well as their ability to grind out away triumphs in return legs and their relatively favourable path to the final, Diego Simeone’s men should be allowed to dream of a historic run in this season’s knockout stages.
Atleti’s home dominance under Simeone
The first time Simeone led his team to the knockout stages of the Champions League was back in 2013/14, the same season when Los Rojiblancos also reached their first final of the competition.
Having grabbed a 0-1 win away at AC Milan in the Round of 16, Atlético went on to thrash the Italian side 4-1 at the Estadio Vicente Calderón, marking Simeone’s first Champions League knockout win that kicked off a 20-game unbeaten home run in the Champions League knockout stages.
The Argentine coach has never seen his team lose a home knockout game, amassing 14 victories and six draws in the ongoing run, with European powerhouses such as Barcelona, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern Munich, Liverpool and Manchester City failing to come out victorious from a game at either the Calderón or Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
Ever since his arrival back in 2011, Simeone has established Atlético Madrid among Europe’s top teams, turning the Rojiblancos into a side impossible to beat on the road and extremely hard to beat at home.
Making history on the road
While teams aim for a top-two finish in the League Phase table in their bid to secure second-leg home advantage throughout the tournament, Atlético have constantly embraced the role of the outsiders by pulling off some historic qualifications despite playing the return leg on the road.
Having already eliminated Milan and Barcelona in 2013/14, the Rojiblancos reached the semi-finals of the competition against José Mourinho’s Chelsea.
The Blues managed a 0-0 draw in Spain and took the lead through Atleti legend Fernando Torres in the second leg, but goals from Adrián López, Diego Costa and Arda Turan saw the visitors turn the game around for a 3-1 victory that clinched them a spot in the final.
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In the 2015/16 season, Atlético knocked out PSV Eindhoven and Barcelona to set up a semi-final tie against Pep Guardiola’s star-studded Bayern Munich. A 1-0 home victory laid the foundation ahead of the return leg in Germany, where Xabi Alonso opened the scoring for the hosts just after the half-an-hour-mark but Antoine Griezmann equalised nine minutes into the second half. Robert Lewandowski put Bayern Munich back in front midway through the second, but the visitors managed to hold on, making their second final in three seasons.
One of their most memorable road victories in the knockout stages came at Anfield in March 2020. Having beaten Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool 1-0 in the first leg, the Rojiblancos saw Georginio Wijnaldum send the game to extra time, where Roberto Firmino netted Liverpool’s second.
Yet, when the going gets tough, the tough get going and Simeone’s side scored three times to turn the tie around in style with Marcos Llorente bagging a brace before Álvaro Morata sealed a spot in the quarter finals.
The rivals may differ, but the pattern remains unchanged. Atlético are making sure to avoid defeat in the first leg, shifting the pressure onto their opponents ahead of the second where they stay compact, neutralise the opposition’s threat and punish potential errors to escape with the result they need – genius, clinical, just Simeone-style.
The path to glory
Meanwhile, the new Champions League format offers the opportunity to visualise the teams’ potential paths to May’s decider. A closer look at the brackets could fill Atleti fans with optimism, as a potential qualification to the quarter finals of the competition will set up a tie against either Newcastle or Barcelona.
The Magpies look solid in Europe, but they currently sit 12th in the Premier League, having lost 12 of their 29 games so far. A potential clash against the Blaugrana should not faze the Rojiblancos, who have knocked out Barcelona twice in the past and recently eliminated them from the Copa del Rey. In fact, none of the teams in what UEFA has labelled “Blue Path” appear overly formidable.
Bodø/Glimt, who beat Atleti 2-1 in the League Phase, are dangerous but inexperienced, while Bayer Leverkusen are a team against whom the Rojiblancos have what it takes to compete. Arsenal may have won all their group games, but they have failed to impress lately, even struggling away at the German side on Wednesday night.
Atlético are nowhere close to being considered favourites for title this season, but this plays right into their hands. Looking comfortable donning the tag of the underdog, Simeone’s side boast the confidence to look any opponent in the eye and history has shown that those who underestimate them usually pay the price.
