Liverpool’s path to automatic round of 16 and playoff qualification explained ahead of Qarabag match
Liverpool head into their crucial Champions League clash with Qarabağ on Wednesday, 28 January 2026 knowing exactly what’s at stake in the final game of the league phase.
Under head coach Arne Slot, the Reds have climbed into fourth place with 15 points and are well positioned to secure European progression – but the nature of qualification under the new format means there are two distinct routes Liverpool could take.
In the expanded 2025/26 Champions League format, teams are ranked across a single league phase table:
- The top eight clubs qualify automatically for the round of 16.
- Clubs 9th to 24th enter a play-off round to reach the round of 16.
- Bottom positions are eliminated entirely. Liverpool currently sit in the top eight, but only a final result against Qarabağ will confirm their precise finish.
Liverpool’s Champions League league phase form
Liverpool secured a commanding 3-0 away win over Marseille in their previous match, bringing their unbeaten run across competitions to 13 games and lifting them into alignment with a top-eight finish.
The Reds have recorded five wins and two defeats in the league phase and have been solid both offensively and defensively, scoring 14 goals while conceding eight.
Dominik Szoboszlai has been among the key contributors in attack, while the team’s high pressing and possession game has remained a defining feature of their European form. A strong showing at Anfield against Qarabağ – a side on 10 points – could seal Liverpool’s direct progression into the round of 16.
🔴 Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk was left furious after question directed at Reds’ head coach Arne Slot over rumours linking Xabi Alonso with the role.
“I think that was very disrespectful.”https://t.co/esLUUsqi6d #lfc
— BB Sport News (@BBSportNews24) January 24, 2026
What Liverpool must do against Qarabağ
To qualify for the Champions League playoffs – effectively securing at least a top-24 finish – Liverpool are already guaranteed that outcome, as even a defeat is unlikely to drop them out of the play-off positions due to their solid points total and goal difference.
To earn automatic progression to the round of 16 and confirm a top-eight finish, it’s firmly in Liverpool’s hands. Here is a look at all of the scenarios:
- A win: Three points against Qarabağ at Anfield would move Slot’s side to 18 points, which would guarantee a top-eight finish, as teams around them on 13-14 points would not be able to catch them.
- A draw: A point against Qarabağ could still be enough, but then Liverpool’s fate would be tied to other results in the group phase – particularly performances from teams clustered below them. There are currently five teams outside the top 8 who are on 13 points – FC Barcelona, Sporting CP, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and Atalanta – who could leapfrog the Reds should they draw at Anfield, depending on goal difference.
- A defeat: In the event of a shock Anfield defeat for Liverpool, automatic qualification (top 8) would become very complicated, as even teams like Inter and Juventus on 12 points – in 14th and 15th place respectively – could overtake them with wins.
Qarabağ, meanwhile, have mounted an impressive campaign of their own and can secure a play-off spot with a draw or even a narrow defeat, based on the broader permutations in the mini-league table.
Why this match matters
For Liverpool, the match against Qarabağ isn’t just another fixture – it could be a defining moment in not only their European campaign, but their season overall.
With their Premier League form proving hugely inconsistent, and too far off leaders Arsenal to be considered title challengers, the Champions League is the greatest source of hope for the Reds this campaign.
A direct route into the round of 16 offers not only prestige but also the advantage of avoiding an extra tie and the fatigue that comes with it.
Slot’s side will be determined to capitalise on home advantage at Anfield, where progress into the latter stages of Europe could hinge on a confident and commanding performance.