Explaining Barça’s path to automatic Champions League qualification and the play-off scenario ahead of Copenhagen clash
FC Barcelona still have everything to play for in the Champions League as they prepare to welcome FC Copenhagen to Spotify Camp Nou on Wednesday, 28 January 2026. Currently sitting ninth with 13 points, the Blaugrana know a win could put them firmly in the race for automatic progression into the round of 16, but several variables involving other teams mean their fate is not fully in their own hands.
Under the Champions League’s new league-phase format, the top eight teams in the overall standings qualify directly for the round of 16, while those finishing 9th to 24th enter a two-legged play-off round to fight for last 16 places. Barcelona currently sit outside the top eight, meaning both routes remain on the table.
Barcelona’s options against FC Copenhagen
- Win: Barcelona’s most straightforward path to the round of 16 is to win their final match against Copenhagen. That would take them to 16 points, the same total that previously secured a top-eight finish in last season’s campaign. Teams finishing with 16 points last season were able to qualify directly, though this year’s table is exceptionally tight.
- Draw: A home point would take Barcelona to 14 points overall, but then their progression would depend on results elsewhere. Several teams from sixth to 13th – including PSG, Newcastle United, Chelsea, Sporting CP, and Manchester City – are clustered around the same points total, and their final fixtures will influence whether Barcelona can leap into the top eight. For example, PSG and Newcastle play each other in the last round, guaranteeing that at least one of them must drop points, a factor that could benefit Barcelona.
- Defeat: If Barcelona lose, automatic qualification becomes almost impossible – only a Chelsea defeat by more than two goals would see them through, and that’s provided others beneath them fail to win too.
The silver lining is that even with a loss, Barça would remain inside the top-24 and therefore qualify for the playoffs that take place in February, although they’d certainly want to avoid another two matches in an already packed schedule.
Why goal difference matters
Goal difference could prove pivotal if Barcelona end level on points with one or more rivals. Currently holding a +5 goal difference, they must not only aim for victory against Copenhagen but ideally by several goals if their rivals also win.
Teams around them, such as PSG, Newcastle and Chelsea, currently have superior goal difference, meaning narrow wins by those clubs could still keep Barcelona outside the top eight even with 16 points.
Barcelona’s direct route to the round of 16 remains clear: win against Copenhagen and hope key rivals slip up. However, a draw or defeat would shift their ambitions to the playoff round, where they would need to navigate another tie to keep their Champions League hopes alive.
Front three yet to fire in Europe this season
Quite incredibly, Barcelona’s usual front three of Raphinha, Lamine Yamal and Robert Lewandowski have not been firing in Europe this season. Between the trio, they only have three goals between them – Yamal with two, Lewandowski with one, and Raphinha yet to get off the mark.
Barcelona’s top scorer in this season’s Champions League is Fermin Lopez, with an impressive five goals in six games, followed closely by Marcus Rashford on four strikes in seven matches.