Latest team news, predicted line-ups, players to watch and data insights for Arsenal vs Manchester City in the Carabao Cup final on Sunday
The eyes of the sporting world descend upon Wembley Stadium this Sunday for the clash between Arsenal and Manchester City. This Carabao Cup Final marks a pivotal moment in the 2025/26 season, as Mikel Arteta’s high-flying Gunners look to secure their first piece of major silverware in six years.
Standing in their way is a wounded Manchester City side, reeling from a midweek Champions League exit at the hands of Real Madrid and desperate to reclaim their domestic dominance.
With Arsenal currently leading the Premier League by nine points, this final serves as a potential changing of the guard in English football.
Arsenal enter the fray with massive momentum following an unbeaten run of 14 matches, while City must find the mental fortitude to bounce back from their 5-1 aggregate European disappointment.
For Pep Guardiola, a win here would be a vital response to critics; for Arteta, it would be the ultimate validation of a season where his side has dominated the domestic landscape.
Team news & injury updates
Mikel Arteta faces an anxious wait regarding club captain Martin Ødegaard, who is doubtful due to a persistent injury and is unlikely to start. Defensive stability is also hampered by the absence of Jurrien Timber, who missed the last match and is considered a major doubt for Sunday. Furthermore, Mikel Merino is sidelined long term.
Pep Guardiola has a few selection headaches of his own. The most significant blow is the absence of Marc Guéhi, who is cup-tied after representing Crystal Palace earlier in the competition. Defensively, the Citizens are also missing Josko Gvardiol, who remains sidelined with a long-term ankle injury.
This means that Guardiola could give the nod to prodigious defender Abdukodir Khusanov, who could fill in alongside an experienced Ruben Dias in City’s back four.
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Head-to-Head (H2H) record
Historically, this fixture has transitioned from a period of City dominance to a fierce, balanced rivalry. Arsenal are currently unbeaten in their last six meetings against Manchester City across all competitions, a streak that includes a dominant 5-1 victory in February 2025.
However, City have a formidable history in this specific competition, having won four successive League Cup meetings against the Gunners in previous years.
Last 5 Meetings:
- 21/09/2025: Arsenal 1-1 Manchester City
- 02/02/2025: Arsenal 5-1 Manchester City
- 22/09/2024: Manchester City 2-2 Arsenal
- 31/03/2024: Manchester City 0-0 Arsenal
- 08/10/2023: Arsenal 1-0 Manchester City
Probable line-ups
| Position | Arsenal Predicted XI | Manchester City Predicted XI |
| Goalkeeper | Raya | Donnarumma |
| Defence | White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapié | Nunes, Rúben Dias, Khusanov, Ait-Nouri |
| Midfield | Rice, Zubimendi, Eze | Rodri, Bernardo Silva, O’Reilly |
| Attack | Saka, Gyökeres, Martinelli | Savinho, Haaland, Semenyo |
Tactical analysis: How the game will be won
Possession vs. Verticality
The tactical narrative of this final centres on Arsenal’s improved control versus City’s need for defensive redemption. Mikel Arteta has evolved Arsenal into a side that excels at suffocating opponents in their own half, using the ball-winning capabilities of Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi to trigger immediate attacks. For City, the challenge is to bypass Arsenal’s relentless high press without the ball-carrying ability of Gvardiol or the cup-tied Guéhi.
Manager Insight
Pep Guardiola is likely to instruct his team to target Arsenal’s full-backs, specifically using the pace of Savinho to stretch the pitch. By creating 1-v-1 situations, City hopes to pull Arsenal’s centre-backs out of position. Conversely, Arteta will look to exploit City’s recent struggles in protecting the transition. If Arsenal can maintain their clinical finishing, they have the tools to overwhelm a City defence that has kept only one clean sheet in their last eight games.
Key players to watch
Eberechi Eze
- Why: Eze enters the final in sensational form, having just scored a thunderbolt winner against Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League on Tuesday to secure Arsenal’s place in the quarter-finals. While he handed Mikel Arteta a brief scare by hobbling off in the 69th minute of that match, he has since confirmed his fitness, stating, “I’m alright, I’ll be okay” for Sunday. Having famously scored the winner against Manchester City in the 2025 FA Cup Final while with Palace, Eze has the chance to become only the third player in history to score against the same opponent in both a League Cup and FA Cup final.
Erling Haaland
- Why: Despite City’s midweek European exit, Haaland remains the most lethal finisher in world football. He will be hungry to prove a point after a difficult night against Real Madrid. His duel with William Saliba will be the defining battle of the match; if Haaland can find even a yard of space, he has the power to secure City’s first trophy of the season single-handedly.
Market Insights & Probability
According to current market data, Arsenal enter the final as the favourites with a 43% win probability, reflecting their superior league form and recent H2H record. Manchester City are valued at 31%, with the draw sitting at 26%.
Market patterns suggest a high-intensity affair, but with “Under 2.5 goals” seeing significant action as both teams boast the best defensive records in the Premier League. This Arsenal vs Manchester City Match Preview anticipates a tactical chess match that may be decided by a single piece of individual brilliance in the closing stages.