PSG forward Ousmane Dembélé leads the Ballon d’Or 2026 race ahead of Harry Kane after Bayern Munich’s Champions League exit
Ousmane Dembélé is the favourite to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or, according to a new supercomputer prediction, following Paris Saint-Germain’s Champions League semi-final victory over Bayern Munich.
The model, created by BB Sport News, gives Dembélé a 28% chance of retaining football’s most prestigious individual award after another standout campaign for the French forward.
Dembélé strengthened his Ballon d’Or credentials after scoring in PSG’s 1-1 draw with Bayern in the Champions League semi-final second leg, helping the French champions secure a 6-5 aggregate victory and book their place in the final for a second consecutive season.
Despite the Frenchman having only made 19 Ligue 1 appearances for the Parisians, the winner of the Champions League carries significant weight over the final decision for the award. And with PSG classed as favourites to defeat Arsenal in the May 30 final in Budapest, the former Barcelona winger is in a strong position to retain the trophy.
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England captain Harry Kane is ranked second in the projections with a 17% chance of winning the award for the first time in his career, currently 11 percentage points behind Dembele based on our model, following Bayern’s European exit.
A Ballon d’Or triumph for Kane would make him the first English winner since Michael Owen claimed the prize in 2001.
The Bayern striker is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career, having scored more than 50 goals in all competitions while leading the scoring charts across Europe.
Dembele’s France international teammate Michael Olise is rated as the third-most likely winner with a 12% probability, while the likes of Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappé, Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice currently have less than a 10% chance of claiming the award.
It should be noted, however, that the outcome of the upcoming World Cup in North America could drastically alter the outcome of the final decision. While France are among the favourites to win the tournament, a victory for Spain or England could see players like Yamal, Kane or Pedri boost their chances.
| PLAYER | CLUB | COUNTRY | % PROBABILITY |
| Ousmane Dembele | PSG | France | 28% |
| Harry Kane | Bayern Munich | England | 17% |
| Michael Olise | Bayern Munich | France | 12% |
| Lamine Yamal | Barcelona | Spain | 9% |
| Declan Rice | Arsenal | England | 7% |
| Kylian Mbappe | Real Madrid | France | 6% |
| Bukayo Saka | Arsenal | England | 5% |
| Leo Messi | Inter Miami | Argentina | 4% |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | PSG | Georgia | 2% |
| Jude Bellingham | Real Madrid | England | 2% |
| Vinicius Junior | Real Madrid | Brazil | 2% |
| Viktor Gyokeres | Arsenal | Sweden | 1% |
| Erling Haaland | Manchester City | Norway | 1% |
| Vitinha | PSG | Portugal | 1% |
| Raphinha | Barcelona | Brazil | 1% |
| Joao Neves | PSG | Portugal | 0.5% |
| Jamal Musiala | Bayern Munich | Germany | 0.5% |
| Lautaro Martinez | Inter | Argentina | 0.5% |
| Marquinhos | PSG | Brazil | 0.3% |
| Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | Egypt | 0.2% |
Methodology
- To estimate each player’s chance of winning the 2026 Ballon d’Or, a simulation-based model was used once all projections were modelled.
- Projections were based on a weighted model, which took into account statistics, betting markets, likelihood of winning major honours, sentiment analysis and historical weighting.
- The formula was simulated 10,000 times, with each percentage reflecting the number of times each player won the prize.
